Is it the End of Humanity – How Close Are We to Extintion?
In the past 50 years, 73% of the world’s wildlife has vanished, and the number of fish in seas and freshwater has dropped by 73–75%. Is humanity also expected to face extinction – or will our population grow so much that future generations will no longer have enough space and basic conditions to survive?
In other words: when will we reach the point of no return at which Earth could no longer provide food, housing, security, clean air, and water fit for life?
The answer changes over time and place, and even the definition of “decent living conditions” depends on the criteria set by those who define them. In the second half of the 20th century, various estimates were proposed for the Earth’s carrying capacity – ranging from 1 billion people to 65 billion.
Average estimates spoke of about 4 billion, assuming a given technological level.
In practice, technological progress, along with social and economic choices and constraints, affect the state of the environment, and in turn are influenced by it.
The Ecological Footprint
One way to estimate the carrying capacity of a region, a country, or the entire planet is by measuring the ecological footprint.
The ecological footprint represents the land and sea area required to provide for human needs and to absorb waste over time.
It reflects the amount of resources people consume and is derived from the Earth’s natural regenerative capacity.
It’s quite simple: if the total footprint is smaller than the area available to the given population, there are enough resources for everyone. But if the footprint is larger, then, there isn’t enough room for all.
As you can see, until 1972, there was enough land to meet all of humanity’s needs
The measured components include: agriculture land, rangeland, fishing grounds, forests, carbon footprint (for absorbing emissions), and built-up land. The index changes over time depending on population, technology, and lifestyle.
Until the early 1970s, the Earth was able to balance resources with human needs. Since then, however, we live in a state of continuous ecological deficit. For example, in 1995 it took the equivalent of 1.3 Earths to meet humanity’s needs, while by 2024 that figure had risen to 1.71 Earths.
Total ecological footprint per country
Logically, the countries with the greatest shortage of ecological space per capita are likely the most densely populated ones.
Is this the end of the road, and are we all doomed to die from hunger, overcrowding, or lack of oxygen?
At this stage, there is still room for hope. The United Kingdom provides a positive example we can learn from:
The UK managed to reduce its ecological footprint by 27% in just one decade, between 2007 and 2017, mainly thanks to a reduce in the use of fossil fuels.
Although the country still consumes more than its ecosystems can support, the trend indicates real improvement and steps toward sustainability.
The Price of Overconsumption
Until we will discover and be able to inhabit other planets, all we truly have is Earth, and it is rapidly losing its ability to regenerate.
Today, humanity consumes natural resources at a rate about 70% higher than the planet’s ecosystems can renew.
This overconsumption leads to deforestation, soil erosion, great loss of biodiversity, and rising carbon dioxide levels, processes that accelerate global warming and increase the frequency of extreme climate events.
Added to this are the accumulation of greenhouse gases and the inefficiency of agricultural systems, which together contribute to shortages of food and water.
Demographic Trends
After hundreds of thousands of years, the global population surged from 1 billion to 8 billion in 2022, and is expected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030.
Alongside with declining mortality and increasing life expectancy, fertility rates are dropping, resulting in a higher average age. The proportion of elderly people in the population is growing significantly compared to those of working age.
Other trends include urbanization and accelerated migration, which impact the economy, employment, health, and infrastructure.
What will happen if we will overcome the technological issues to meet humanity’s needs, but the human population will continue to grow?
In June 1972, John C. Calhoun stood over the abandoned remains of what had once been a bustling metropolis of thousands of lives.
Calhoun was not a survivor of a natural disaster or a nuclear meltdown.
He was an ethologist (a scientist studying animal behavior) at the National Institute of Mental Health in Maryland, USA.
In his famous experiment, “Universe 25,” he sought to examine the effects of population growth under limited conditions.
Universe 25
The experiment began with four pairs of mice living in a specially designed enclosure, a kind of “rodent paradise.” It included housing units, abundant nesting materials, comfortable climate, tasty food, and water.
The only limited resource was physical space.
Almost a year later, as population density almost reached its peak, the utopia turned into a nightmare.
Population growth slowed, the animals became increasingly aggressive, developed abnormal sexual behaviors, and began neglecting or even attacking their young.
Mice born into the chaos were unable to form normal social bonds or engage in typical social behaviors such as courtship, mating, and raising offspring.
Instead of interacting with their peers, males compulsively groomed themselves, while females stopped becoming pregnant.
What was particularly alarming, that the abnormal behavior did not stop even after the population declined, or when the “Universe 25” mice were introduced into a normal mouse colony.
Ultimately, the entire colony became extinct. The same grim outcome occurred every time the experiment was repeated.
However, adding additional rooms, which allowed the animals to live in a dense environment but without being forced into unwanted contact with others, greatly reduced the negative social consequences.
Observations and Conclusions from the Universe25 Experiment:
- Personal space is essential to prevent social collapse.
- The relevance of “Universe 25” to humans remains controversial, but it provides much food for thought.
- For obvious reasons, such an experiment has never been conducted on humans, and animal protection laws now prevent it from being repeated.
Looking Ahead:
Some researchers suggest shifting our focus from Earth’s human carrying capacity to the question:
What should we do over the next 25 years to ensure security, health, and well-being for current and future generations, while keeping our responsibilities to the environment and other forms of life?
Based on three main approaches, which would you suggest focusing on: increasing the “cake,” reducing the number of “forks,” or improving “table manners”?
- Bigger cake: Increase productivity and technological innovation.
- Fewer forks: Slow population growth through voluntary fertility reduction.
- Better table manners: Reduce violence, corruption, and inequality while improving economic efficiency and minimizing harmful byproducts of over-consumption and production.
Our Future:
The human future is not predetermined. It depends on the extent to which countries can balance population growth, consumption levels, and technology, given the limits of Earth’s capacity.
Only if we succeed in ensuring security, health, and well-being in the coming decades, transition to a sustainable economy that reduces overconsumption, protect natural resources, develop sustainable agriculture and food systems, and design green, healthy cities. Simultaneously invest in social justice, international cooperation, and education for environmental responsibility – only then it will be possible to believe that humanity is not approaching its end and that we can maintain a livable environment for all.
Sources:
https://data.footprintnetwork.org
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/ecological-footprint-by-country
https://www.niussp.org/environment-and-development/can-earth-support-4-billion-people-sustainably-and-well
https://www.footprintnetwork.org/2019/09/04/18187
https://www.un.org/en/observances/world-population-day
https://overshoot.footprintnetwork.org/newsroom/country-overshoot-days
https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/dependency-and-depopulation-confronting-the-consequences-of-a-new-demographic-reality
https://www.the-scientist.com/universe-25-experiment-69941